The Two-Mile Time Machine

Richard B. Alley

Why I looked at this book

There is talk of a 'tipping point' - the idea that change, in particular climate change, can quickly enter a rapid phase. I'm interested in how realistic this idea is, and I hope that this book will help to clarify some of the issues. It also looks to be an interesting read - aimed at a general readership rather than at specialists.

First impressions

The first edition of this book was published in 2000, and the new edition has a new preface. Now my understanding is that since 2000 the evidence is that global warming is certainly continuing, but that there are unlikely to be any of the 'tipping point' scenarios anytime soon. The preface tells of a less than 10% chance of major disruption in the next century. It seems to me that this rather undermines the message of the book - my assumption is that originally it was warning of the possibility of quick change, now it has to assign a low probability to such change.